Week 51
AlbionDesign GmbH week 51/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.0614 ↘ API 2 Front month $228.65 ↘
EUA Dec 23 €90.22 ↗ EUA DEC 24 €94.23 ↗
Happy Holidays! A few days until Christmas in the West and we’re into the 3rd day of Hanukkah.
With the end of the year and huge clearing margin requirements, liquidity is just not there so across Nordic power, quarter ahead gas, coal, carbon, prices gyrate on any news. Sadly, it is only freight that is remaining “boring” into the end of the year.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €245+
· Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat to higher €205/210
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA ↗ on week 50 Industrial $398
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↗ on week 50 €395+
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain €140/€145 ↗
· Woodchips LT €37.68/MWh ↗ : LV €42.18/MWh ↘ : EE €35.00/MWh NC
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA flat on week 50 €27/28 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster flat on week 50 $44/46 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↗ on week 50. $72/76 on 3kt
· Handys/Supras ↘ on week 50. About $14k on a 4 month time charter.
Overview:
· It’s the end of the year: ½ the market is away, the other ½ is thinking about being away.
· China is open but the market is remaining very wait and see if gas, coal, and oil imports increase
· If someone can 1 explain a price cap in practice 2 give me the odds of it working, that would be great
Demand:
· Irregular weather and inelastic supply has allowed a growth in a secondary, non local, biomass.
· Biogas and biomass demand continues to grow.
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://www.ft.com/content/7b6a9450-c121-4860-aff9-1e80b5372d00
· https://en.sat24.com/en/forecastimages/europa/forecasttemp
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
