Week 50

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 50/2022

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.0636   ↘                                            API 2 Front month $238.5 ↘  

EUA Dec 23 €89.09  ↗                               EUA DEC 24 €93.46 ↗

Welcome to the Dec ’23 EUA contract.

If you thought that forward market liquidity was poor, wait and see what this gas cap will do.

This week has seen very cold weather across Northern Europe and the Alps. While Scandinavia and the Baltic will remain well below 0°c, Central Europe should become milder and, in the Balkans it remains fairly warm.

We’ve seen what a few days of unexpectedly cold weather can do now. Let’s see what a prolonged chill might do.   

 Prices:                                                                                                                

·         Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €245+

·         Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat to higher €205/210

·         SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  flat on week 49  Industrial $395                                             

·         Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 49 €390+

·         Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170

·         Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain  €138/€142  ↗

·         Woodchips LT €37.39/MWh ↗   : LV €42.52/MWh ↘   : EE €35.00/MWh NC  

Freight:

·          Baltic Coaster – ARA  flat on week 49 €27/28 on 3kt                           

·         Black Sea Coaster  flat on week 49 $44/46 on 3kt                                

·         Azov-Marmara Coaster flat on week 49. $67/72 on 3kt                   

·          Handys/Supras  ↘ on week 49.   About $14k on a 4 month time charter.                                                 

Overview:

·         Prices are mixed across everything. Sunhusk down, olives hugely up, Industrial wood flat

·         Dec 22 EUA options expired, so Dec 2023 here we come...and it’s higher.

·         Crude prices continue falling while the overall energy complex is higher on colder weather and China related to the easing of restrictions and testing.

Demand:

·         It feels as though the market has decided biomass has a place in the fuel mix. Still niche but growing

·         There was €100 printed along the EUA curve earlier this week. A sign of things to come?

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://carbon-pulse.com/

·         https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/europe-energy-crisis-updates/?leadSource=uverify%20wall

·         https://en.sat24.com/en/forecastimages/europa/forecasttemp

·         https://www.ft.com/content/73eba78a-1bdb-4b32-be3e-b0329470b946

·         https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions

·         https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-gas-market-faces-risks-eu-price-cap-equinor-says-2022-12-12/

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.