Week 51
AlbionDesign GmbH week 51/2021
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.1248 ↘ $/₽ 73.77 flat
EUA Dec 22 €78.20 ↘ API 2 Front month $145.00 ↗
Gas has been the driver for extended gains in coal, EUA, and therefore biomass. The EU gas market is so tight that ships are diverting mid voyage. Look at power prices to see that all is not right in Europe.
On the bright side, however, is a tiny glimmer of hope for solid fuels buyers – southern coasters have given up around 6% on the previous week. Still historically high but finally some breathing room.
Overview:
· People are on edge with limited gas flows, high power costs, and holidays beginning.
· Omicron has sent several countries into renewed lockdowns. Business is better prepared now so we should not expect the same lack of power demand as the start of 2020.
Demand:
· The demand for power and heat is very high across Europe. The current problem is supply.
· Expect last minute buying before Christmas to secure supplies and take some risk off the mind
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster flat on week 50. €36 on 3kt Baltic
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ 5-6% off week 50. N. Black Sea to Marmara is near $41 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘ 5-6% down. +- $54 Azov Marmara/E. Med
· Handys/Supras ↘- intra week has seen volatility but overall small geared vessels are slightly down
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: <-> Spot 60 days FOB €125+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ FOB €124
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. I cannot find reliable prices attached to real volume
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ market is up firmly on week 50 Q1 $225 Q2 $215
·
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/
· www.splash247.com
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
