Week 50
AlbionDesign GmbH week 50/2021
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.1265 ↘ $/₽ 73.91 flat
EUA Dec 21 €79.88 ↗ API 2 Front month $140.00 ↗
Volatility continues to be extreme. For an interesting chart, see French gas. Power, gas, and coal all made significant moves higher in the week to date. While the EUA has fallen from extreme highs, the forward curve predicts higher prices for longer. Demand for biomass power has never been higher. Denmark and the Netherlands have hugely expanded their consumption on last year, with the largest potential future demand coming out of the Netherlands.
Overview:
· Volatility is making short term planning difficult to impossible. Longer term it incentivises biomass demand
· Mixed messages from China & India relating to their local coal supply, NordStream 2 is a go or not, and the concern around steel, car, and future consumer demand due to high input prices is making decisions harder to conclude. Chinese consumer appetite, coupled with a slowing housing market is something to follow.
· Expect continued volatility in the near term with politics, weather, and inflation all playing their role.
Demand:
· Biomass power production could reach over 5TWh this year. A 1 million tonne increase on 2020.
· Further ahead, on power, steel sentiment is cooling and questions over semiconductor availability for the car sector raises questions about future demand.
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster ↗ on week 49. €36 on 3kt Baltic ARA is a lot to swallow but shipowners are in control
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ Very small gains on week 49. N. Black Sea to Marmara is near hitting $45 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↗ – Up on previous week but slowing. +- $59 Azov Marmara/E. Med
· Handys/Supras flat - intra week has seen volatility but overall small geared vessels are flat on the week.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: <-> Spot 60 days FOB €122+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ FOB €122
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €96
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: modest gains Q1 $219 Q2 $210 *The forward curve is almost flat. Almost no summer discount
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/
· www.splash247.com
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
