Week 01
AlbionDesign GmbH week 01/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.1284 ↘ $/₽ 79.50 ↗
EUA Dec 22 €87.20 ↗ API 2 Front month $118.07 ↘
Happy New Year! 2022 is off with a bang. On low liquidity and a flurry of redirected US Gulf LNG cargoes, the final week of 2021 was as unusual as we’ve come to expect. Gas dropped 20%, EUA came off, coal fell, and freight eased. This week sees a reversal of last week’s downward moves, apart from freight remaining lower.
The energy complex has risen again. With Indo banning coal exports, expect Supras to fall further and coal to tick higher as the world’s largest thermal exporter’s clients (China, India, S. Korea, Japan) need new origins.
Overview:
· With ½ the market still out, coupled with omicron and political saber-rattling, expect directionless volatility
· Countries seem determined to remain as open as possible, this winter. Different statement to 2020 + 2021.
Demand:
· The demand for power and heat is very high across Europe. The current problem is supply.
· Expect last minute buying before Christmas to secure supplies and take some risk off the mind
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster flat on week 52. €36-€35 on 3kt Baltic
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ 5-6% off week 52. N. Black Sea to Marmara is near $39 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘ 5-6% down. +- $50 Azov Marmara/E. Med
· Handys/Supras ↘- intra week has seen volatility but overall small geared vessels are slightly down
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: <-> Spot 60 days FOB €125+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ FOB €124
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. I cannot find reliable prices attached to real volume
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ market is up firmly on week 50 Q1 $230 Q2 $215
·
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/
· www.splash247.com
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
