Week 49
AlbionDesign GmbH week 49/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.04700 ↗ $/₽ 64.9479 ? black market rate between roughly 30% higher
EUA Dec 22 €87.95↗ API 2 Front month $266.50 ↗
What a difference a few °c can make. It will be interesting to see power consumption in the UK: with the worst insulted housing in Europe and a cold snap coming through + very little district heating. I say the UK as they easily import the largest tonnage of biomass, almost exclusively woody biomass.
If you’re in the Baltic, keep an eye on the Finnish ice reports as more ice is on the horizon.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €255+
· Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat to higher €205/210
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA flat on week 48 Industrial $395
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 48 €405+
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain↗ €115/€120
· Woodchips LT €34.33/MWh ↗ : LV €42.74/MWh ↗ : EE €35.00/MWh ↗
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA flat on week 48 €27/28 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ on week 48 $44/46 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster flat on week 48. $67/72 on 3kt
· Handys/Supras ↘ on week 48. About $17k on a 4 month time charter.
Overview:
· Northern Europe might be in for an exceptionally cold winter.
· Has the market decided the EU will not go easy on emissions and we’re heading higher for longer?
· Crude prices continue falling while the overall energy complex is higher on colder weather and China related to the easing of restrictions and testing.
Demand:
· How much does each °c affect demand? No idea. Ask Hawkins Wright or Bioenergy Europe.
· As the fossil fuels go higher and drag the EUA higher, demand for cheaper calories increases
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://www.ft.com/content/b0c2f6fa-7164-4cf5-80ad-db029a5b66de
· https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Europes-Energy-Crisis-Is-Reshaping-Geopolitics.html
· https://www.montelnews.com/news/1374042/hard-winter-of-high-gas-prices-ahead--seb-
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
