Week 49
AlbionDesign week 49/2021
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.1295 ↗ $/₽ 73.94 ↗
EUA Dec 21 €85.42 ↗ API 2 Front month $128.00 ↗
Finding clarity in the energy markets currently is not easy. Coal is trying to outcompete gas in who’s more volatile while the CO2 future is reaching levels we thought impossible 12 months ago. Deep sea freight, while off the highs, remains undecided going into the New Year.
Overview:
· The EUA reached €85. Just think about that for a moment.
· *Purchasing managers/traders & commercial directors must get closer to their compliance department. RED II is an EU Directive that member states interpret into local law. Your obligation is to your regulator, not a certificate scheme. Voluntary schemes “lubricate” trading but for an end-user your obligation is local.*
· NordStream-2 has gone from an almost maybe to a let’s wait and see. TTF at a 100 doesn’t seem so hard.
Demand:
· Strong enough for some suppliers to ask for price increases on contracts and succeed. We frown upon this.
· As operators become comfortable, the % of biomass they are burning is expanding as fast as new demand
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster ↗ on week 48. Less than €1 per tonne increase. Roughly 3 times the cost 1 year ago
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ $1.00 on week 48. Grain exports have slowed but cold weather is coming.
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↗ – up very slightly on week 48.
· Handys/Supras ↗ - modest gains on previous week but still below November highs.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: <-> Spot 60 days FOB €122+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ FOB €121
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €93
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ Q1 $219 Q2 $210 *uniquely flat annual forward curve currently. Summer lull barely present
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/
· www.splash247.com
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
