Week 5 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 05/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.08828                       ↘                                        API 2 Front month $140.00    ↘  

EUA Dec 23 €94.71          ↗                                      EUA DEC 24 €98.16                    ↗

This week it would appear like coal and gas are walking two different paths. ARA coal stocks are very high while forecasted colder weather and lower German wind are pushing gas higher. The EUA has decided to join gas and is hitting some big numbers. Further out the curve €100 can be seen.

Wood pellets, usually too expensive outside of boilers and stoves is currently one of the cheaper GJ. There are a number of factors at play here, but this could be a golden opportunity to test the physical characteristics of pellets.

 Prices:

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €180+

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat €170/175

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  ↘ on week 04 Industrial $250                 

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 04 €235+

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q1 flat $130

·                     Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain  flat €140/€145 

·                     Baltpool Woodchips LT €31.15/MWh ↘: LV €32.00/MWh ↘: EE €31.29/MWh ↘

Freight:

·                      Baltic Coaster – ARA  flat on week 04 €26/27 on 3kt                          

·                     Black Sea Coaster  flat on week 04 $40/42 on 3kt                                

·                     Azov-Marmara Coaster flat on week 04 $72/76 on 3kt                    

·                      Handys/Supras  flat on week 04.               About $9.5k on a 4 month time charter.                                                                

Overview:

·                     Power generators are long product.

·                     Coaster markets from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea are looking for direction. 3rd flat week

·                     With gas down from highs, what is the biogas industry looking at?

Demand:

·                     Demand is poor and the outlook is unclear. Long term wood looks questionable to some

·                     Medium to long term the outlook for biomass is very strong

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·                     https://www.montelnews.com/news/1424593/co2-touches-6-month-high-on-gas-technicals

·                     https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-logs-worst-month-in-3-years-on-lower-vessel-demand/

·                     https://www.tradewindsnews.com/casualties/video-purportedly-shows-missile-attacks-on-stranded-ships-in-ukraine/2-1-1396129

·                     https://biomassmagazine.com/articles/19641/filling-the-gap

·                     https://biomassmagazine.com/articles/19674/report-canadian-wood-pellet-exports-up-5-in-2022

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.