Week 4 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 04/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.08981                       ↗                                        API 2 Front month $166.15    ↘  

EUA Dec 23 €86.57          ↗                                        EUA DEC 24 €90.15                    ↗

Amazing what a little bit of cold weather will do. Prices have paused their slide after a week of cold weather from Southern UK to the Alps. The rather impressive drop in prices was likely overdone slightly.

On the pure power side, all the fun is happening in Japan currently with new power generators coming on line. CPH in Europe continues to perform well even with chips remaining stubbornly high. Heavy industry is forging ahead and residential markets continue their ascent.

 Prices:

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €185+

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat to higher €170/175

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  ↘ on week 03 Industrial $260                 

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 03 €260+

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q1 flat $130

·                     Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain  flat €140/€145 

·                     Baltpool Woodchips LT €33.23/MWh ↘: LV €42.00/MWh ↗: EE €31.29/MWh ↘

Freight:

·                      Baltic Coaster – ARA  flat on week 03 €26/27 on 3kt                          

·                     Black Sea Coaster  ↘ on week 03 $40/42 on 3kt                                   

·                     Azov-Marmara Coaster flat on week 03 $72/76 on 3kt                    

·                      Handys/Supras  ↘ on week 03.   About $10k on a 4 month time charter.                                                 

Overview:

·                     The UK CFD isn’t supporting demand for power generation but alternative demand is picking up slack

·                     Coasters are way off their highs but nothing compares to the drop on handys, supras, and ultras.

·                     2023 looks to be a fun year. China has left its cave. Now all eyes on imports from LNG to Coal.

Demand:

·                     The weather is forecast to be chilly in key consumption areas. Could be volatile.

·                      The EUA keeps coal burners looking for alternatives

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·                     https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/north-asia-cranks-coal-imports-to-fuel-industrial-reboot/

·                     https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions/

·                     https://www.tradewindsnews.com/bulkers/clan-clients-hunt-bulkers-and-mpp-tonnage-for-russia-trade/2-1-1391918

·                     https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/beware-indonesias-coal-export-heft-2023-2023-01-26/

·                     https://biomassmagazine.com/articles/19674/report-canadian-wood-pellet-exports-up-5-in-2022

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.