Week 6 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 06/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.07245                       ↘                                        API 2 Front month $128.00    ↘  

EUA Dec 23 €91.32          ↘                                        EUA DEC 24 €95.46                    ↘

How the worm has turned on energy prices. Coal is at a 1 year low. Gas stocks are about 80% higher than usual for this time of the year. Freight rates are not holding up. I guess China is a story we have to wait on.

Until the UK CFD or some unexpected power demand occurs, the NWE market will remain weak.

 Prices:

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €160+

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↘ €165/170

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  ↘ on week 05 Industrial $220                 

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 05 €215+

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q1 flat $130

·                     Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain  flat €140/€145 

·                     Baltpool Woodchips LT €30.53/MWh ↘: LV €40.40/MWh ↗ : EE €27.53/MWh ↘

Freight:

·                      Baltic Coaster – ARA  ↘: on week 05 €25/26 on 3kt                            

·                     Black Sea Coaster  ↘: on week 05 $35/37 on 3kt                                 

·                     Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘: on week 05 $70/73 on 3kt                     

·                     Handys/Supras  flat on week 05.               About $9.0k on a 4 month time charter.                                                                

Overview:

·                     New  buyers are asking themselves how is it prices can change so much in 6 months.

·                     Coasters from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea have lost a few dollars per tonne over the past weeks

·                     Logistics and lack of investment (being slow) is holding back further biomass burning in industry

·                     Lack of regulatory clarity/knowledge is holding up transactions.

Demand:

·                     The demand for biomass is matched by the need for more milling equipment.

·                     Medium to long term the outlook for biomass is very strong

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·                     https://www.montelnews.com/news/1436744/eu-gas-stocks-to-end-winter-80-higher-than-usual--expert

·                     https://www.ft.com/content/74c75caa-d39f-4df7-b455-3b88d8363fb4

·                     https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-falls-as-capesize-losses-offset-panamax-gains/

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.