Week 48
AlbionDesign GmbH week 48/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.03856 ↘ $/₽ 64.9479 ? black market rate between roughly 30% higher
EUA Dec 22 €84.04↗ API 2 Front month $259.45 ↗
If you don’t use gas, you should be looking at it anyway. While off its highs, as gas pushes higher it makes coal look more attractive. More coal, more EUAs needed. There is some elasticity in the market to switch. The narrowing USG petcoke discount to API4 might also be driving more coal burning...that side of fossil fuels is beyond me.
The weather is nippy and winds have been pretty poor in the North. Biomass used in heating markets is likely finding its way to ashes already, or at least the garden shed for use soon.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €265+
· Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat to higher €205/210
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA flat on week 47 Industrial $400
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 47 €410+
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain↗ €112/€117
· Woodchips LT €34.31/MWh ↘ : LV €42.08/MWh ↗ : EE €34.36/MWh ↘
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA flat on week 47 €27/28 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ on week 47 $43/45 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘ on week 47. $67/72 on 3kt
· Handys/Supras ↘ on week 47. About $17k on a 4 month time charter.
Overview:
· Those with experience in handling biomass are now exploring new fuels to switch, or blend, in their boilers
· The EUA is soaring. Increasing the LRF and a possible CBAM coming in have dulled bearish rumours*
· No more Russian diesel soon. What happens to Russian LNG?
Demand:
· Suddenly demand has picked up. A consequence of a lacklustre World Cup? Not sure, but feels busier
· Demand for a non-local fuel has increased. Not for the baseload volumes, but security of supply
· Technologies like bio-gas and low grade solid fuels are proving more adaptable than once thought
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://explorersweb.com/natural-wonders-longest-animal-in-the-world/
· https://www.rhineforecast.com/
· https://www.ft.com/content/4e5cfae0-22a7-47fd-9bde-9d05c2da47c7
*get ready to learn some new acronyms.
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
