Week 47
AlbionDesign GmbH week 47/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.04257 ↗ $/₽ 64.9479 ↗ black market rate between roughly 30% higher
EUA Dec 22 €76.01 ↗ API 2 Front month $245.75 ↗
Rails strikes from Colombia to S. Africa have been averted yet coal is nearly $40 higher. Gas is easily moving 10% weekly. Amid thin trading, the wood pellet markets have seen a lot of steam coming off in the past 2 weeks, though forecasted colder weather should limit those falls. We have yet to see any large new demand come in now it is getting colder. December could see things turn around quickly.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €300+
· Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat to higher €200/205
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA ↘ on week 46 Industrial $400
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 46 €440+
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain↗ €110/€115
· Woodchips LT €35.91/MWh ↘ : LV €40.49/MWh ↘ : EE €35.00/MWh No Change
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA ↘ week 46 €27/28 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ on week 46 $42/44 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster flat on week 46. $69/74 on 3kt
· Handys/Supras flat on week 46. About $17.5k on a 4 month time charter.
Overview:
· Jittery market looking for any reason to push higher
· Forwards curves do not predict fuel prices falling soon
· It’s getting colder and the remaining Russian gas into Europe is looking questionable
Demand:
· It feels as though interest from new participants has remerged from a 3 month hiatus
· Lots of trialling and testing news fuels across industries.
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
https://www.montelnews.com/news/1370542/ecs-gas-price-cap-will-have-little-impact--analysts-
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
