Week 46
AlbionDesign GmbH week 46/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.04243 ↗ $/₽ 64.9479 ↗ black market rate between roughly 30% higher
EUA Dec 22 €73.98 ↗ API 2 Front month $203.00 ↗
A reversal on last week’s weakness. Some cold and falling nuclear capacity have raised the price of energy. Spot power is as volatile as ever, a windy Germany sends power way down. Wet weather in Norway means more hydro. Solid biomass is remaining relatively stable. The Euro has been making gains against the US$ in recent weeks.
Everything considered, if there was value in non € priced biomass, previously, that value has now increased.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €320+
· Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat to higher €200/205
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA flat on week 45 Industrial $440
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 45 €470+
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat to higher €94/€96
· Woodchips LT €36.55/MWh ↘ : LV €40.52/MWh ↘ : EE €35.00/MWh No Change
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA flat week 45 €29/29 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ on week 45 $43/45 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘ on week 45. $69/74 on 3kt
· Handys/Supras ↘ on week 45. About $17.5k on a 4 month time charter.
Overview:
· The spread between coal/petcoke + EUA and biomass is widening again.
· Cement and lime should be looking deeper into agri pellets and leave wood to those that can pay for it.
· Putin’s temper tantrums’ unpredictability keep the market on edge
Demand:
· Coal, gas, EUA higher, demand increases. Simple.
· So long as there isn’t a massive drop in industrial/power demand, biomass burn will increase everywhere
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
https://www.montelnews.com/news/1368787/carbon-rallies-on-cold-outlook-lower-nuclear
https://www.ft.com/content/d5bf658d-0a6a-4cfd-a46b-3589e64ae5b6
https://www.ft.com/content/deb32ffc-05d2-4171-8569-cb9b9ee93300
https://www.montelnews.com/news/1369000/polish-price-cap-to-see-monopolisation-of-power-trading
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
