Week 45

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 45/2022

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.00294  ↗                $/₽ 64.9479 ↗                              black market rate between roughly 30% higher

EUA Dec 22 €73.39  ↘   API 2 Front month $192.75  ↘

A mixture of still mild weather, a fairly big drop in gas demand over October, fears of recession, and lack of storage all around has kept markets either flat or lower on last week. While the front end is showing weakness, the same cannot be said going into Q1. The real squeeze, depending on demand, comes next heating season.  

Has China relaxed its Covid restrictions or not? Trying to get any idea of Chinese industrial demand is not easy.

 Prices:                                                                                                                

·         Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €320+

·         Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat to higher €187/197

·         SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  ↘ on week 44    Industrial $440                                             

·         Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 44  €500+

·         Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170

·         Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat to higher €93/€98

·         Woodchips LT €36.96/MWh ↘ : LV €43.17/MWh ↗: EE €35.00/MWh   No Change

Freight:

·          Baltic Coaster – ARA  up  on week 44 €29/29on 3kt                            

·         Black Sea Coaster  up on week 44 $44/46 on 3kt                                  

·         Azov-Marmara Coaster up on week 44. $70/75 on 3kt                    

·          Handys/Supras  ↘ on week 44.          About $17.5k on a 4 month time charter.                                                              

Overview:

·         Storage costs money, so holding product is not desirable. Retail and heating sales have been sluggish

·         Some heating markets are starting to heat up as temperatures cool down.

·         The grain corridor was set up until the 18th. Erdogan is pushing for another year.

Demand:

·         Expanding across industries and higher percentages used by those with experience.

·         Where there is a commercial reason and a security of supply issue met, biomass use continues

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1365546/carbon-slides-eur-3-ahead-of-eu-debate-

·         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AySC0LbRP7M&list=WL&index=44

·         https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-after-3-drop-demand-fears-2022-11-09/

·         https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/11/09/us/hurricane-nicole-tropical-storm

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.