Week 44

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 44/2022

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 0.97887  ↘                $/₽ 64.9479 ↗                              black market rate between roughly 30% higher

EUA Dec 22 €77.62  ↗   API 2 Front month $223.00  ↘

It took until week 44, but the summer has finally ended. Warm temperatures and a long weekend after explosive price increases in the past 3 months put the brakes on the market. Prices for near term volumes have fallen due to limited storage further down the supply chain. If you can’t stop production and storage is brimming, you lower the price until it moves. On limited trading, any price moves the market.

 Prices:                                                                                                                

·         Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €340+

·         Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat to higher €187/197

·         SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  ↘ on week 43    Industrial $490                                             

·         Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 43  €520+

·         Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170

·         Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat to higher €91/€95

·         Woodchips LT €39.73/MWh ↘ : LV €43.02/MWh ↘ : EE €35.00/MWh ↗

Freight:

·          Baltic Coaster – ARA  flat  on week 43 €26/28 on 3kt                         

·         Black Sea Coaster  flat on week 43 $41/43 on 3kt                                

·         Azov-Marmara Coaster flat  on week 43. $65/68 on 3kt                  

·          Handys/Supras  ↘ on week 43.   About $17.5k on a 4 month time charter.                                                              

Overview:

·         The spread between pellets of any description and non pelletised material is as wide as ever.

·         Petcoke creeping higher. This is all about EUAs and kcal.

·         In the Med, wood is nonsensical into industry. Olives and Palm will find their place. The North is trickier

Demand:

·         Expanding across industries and higher percentages used by those with experience.

·         Seeing your breathe in the morning tells you it’s getting cold. Retail is re-entering the market

o   By retail I mean heating: hatcheries, green houses, CHP

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1364329/carbon-continues-slump-amid-profit-taking

·         https://www.ft.com/content/fa0829ab-2e81-4a1c-aa0b-c17aa8f4b992

·         https://www.ft.com/content/19ad9f9f-e1cb-40f9-bae3-082e533423ab

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.