Week 41 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 41/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.06131                       ↗:                                       API 2 Front month $128.53    ↗:

EUA DEC 23 €84.82          ↗:                                        EUA DEC 24 €88.00                  ↗:

Short term: Gas is up, coal is up, petcoke is flat (down in USG, on higher freight), the EUA is up so biomass should be…..biomass is flat or for the lucky opportunists, slightly down in the spot market. Why? A less than perfect market with few opportunities to trade short term i.e. no derivatives. While problems exist on the supply side, they are outweighed by lacklustre demand.

 Prices:  

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: €$xyz

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med €$xyz

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet FOB Baltic €$xyz

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  €$xyz                

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic €$xyz

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 €$xyz        -€$xyz on tenera

·                     Spent olive wastes FCA Spain €€$xyz

·                     Baltpool Woodchips - Lithuania €20.69/MWh ↗: Latvia €18.00/MWh ↘ Estonia €14.10/MWh ↘

Freight:

·                     Baltic Coaster – ARA  flat €$xyz on 3kt                     

·                     Black Sea Coaster  flat €$xyz on 3kt                          

·                     Azov-Marmara  €$xyz on 3kt                      

·                     Handys/Supras  ↗                                                                            

Overview:

·                     While the UK is back to burning, pellet producers are trying to get volumes in ASAP. Front end supply is high

·                     All things being equal, biomass looks cheap on rising gas and a higher EUA

Demand:

·                     The weather is freakishly warm. If Europe had more AC, we’d having cooling demand.

·                     Heavy Industry, here and there, continues rolling out their CAPEX projects according to their long term plans

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-snaps-3-day-winning-streak-as-capesize-rates-dip/

·         https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/finnish-government-hold-news-conference-suspected-pipeline-leak-media-2023-10-10/

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1527126/energy-complex-tracks-rising-gas-to-new-highs

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1526978/well-stocked-german-coal-plants-shrug-off-river-restrictions

·         https://carboncredits.com/carbon-prices-today/

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.