Week 39 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 39/2023

Economically Ecological                               

Contact us for the full report

€/$ 1.05698                       ↘:                                       API 2 Front month $125.70    ↗:

EUA DEC 23 €82.49          ↘:                                        EUA DEC 24 €86.70                  ↘:

Little changed on last week.

With just days to go until the UK CfD should make sense again, the market has been rather mute to the fact that big boys are back. Yes, there are mountains of pellets in storage across Northern Europe but those can be drawn down. In any case, the haemorrhaging should stop. So, the only way is up? To be seen. Power demand could be key.

Coal is largely flat while petcoke has been rising. Atlantic Supramax freight is a rollercoaster. Coasters ticking up.  

 Prices:  

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: €call

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med €call

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet FOB Baltic €call

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  €call  

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic €call

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q2 €call           -US$5 on tenera

·                     Spent olive wastes FCA Spain €call

·                     Baltpool Woodchips - Lithuania €call ↗: Latvia €call ↗: Estonia €call ↘:

Freight:

·                     Baltic Coaster – ARA  ↗€call on 3kt                           

·                     Black Sea Coaster  ↗ €call on 3kt                                

·                     Azov-Marmara  ↘ €call on 3kt                   

·                     Handys/Supras  ↗                                                                            

Overview:

·                     Wait and see is the name of the game for big volume buyers. All eyes on the UK and 1st October

·                     Some ups and downs but numbers are back to where they were last week

Demand:

·                     Industrial demand for energy and steel and related industries is down overall. Industrial orders lower

·                     Legacy fossil fuel contracts still exist. Demand points to higher % of biomass consumption in heavy industry energy portfolios. This will be delayed slightly given their own energy needs are lower on lower sales.

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1524611/nordic-power-falls-as-reservoir-levels-near-25-year-high

·         https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/What-Russias-Fuel-Export-Ban-Means-For-The-Markets.html

·         https://biomassmagazine.com/articles/eia-densified-biomass-fuel-sales-at-870000-tons-in-june

·         https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-carriers-in-high-demand/

·         https://www.tradewindsnews.com/regulation/shipowners-blast-upcoming-eu-ets-as-a-tax-on-maritime-trade-/2-1-1524352

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.