Week 42 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 42/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.05749                       ↘:                          API 2 Front month $138.75  ↗:                            TTF Front month      €50.25   ↗:

EUA DEC 23 €83.01           ↘:                          EUA DEC 24 €87.11↘:                                             TTF Q1                     €56.25   ↗:

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 Prices:  

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: €xyz

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med €xyz

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet FOB Baltic €xyz

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  €xyz                  

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic €xyz

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 €xyz          -US$5 on tenera

·                     Spent olive wastes FCA Spain €xyz

·                     Baltpool Woodchips - Lithuania €xyz /MWh ↗: Latvia €xyz /MWh ↗: Estonia €xyz /MWh ↗:

Freight:

·                     Baltic Coaster – ARA  flat €xyz on 3kt                        

·                     Black Sea Coaster  ↘ €xyz on 3kt                                

·                     Azov-Marmara  ↘ €xyz on 3kt                    

·                     Handys/Supras  ↗                                                                            

Overview:

·                     USIPA this week. Don’t expect any noise from power generators this week

·                     EU Gas reserves are at 98%, meaningfully higher than this time last year.

Demand:

·                     Cold night time temperatures are fantastic for heating markets.

·                     Heavy Industry, here and there, continues rolling out their CAPEX projects according to their long term plans

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1528229/end-of-day--carbon-gas-continue-to-fall

·         https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/23/the-great-cash-for-carbon-hustle

·         https://www.ft.com/content/a31fa9ed-fc5e-4a37-a80c-956b443ad38b

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1528187/europe-may-see-colder-than-normal-jan-feb--forecaster

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3418823

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.