Week 41
AlbionDesign GmbH week 41/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 0.9730 ↘ $/₽ 64.1684 ↗ black market rate between roughly 30% higher
EUA Dec 22 €66.29 ↘ API 2 Front month $260.65 ↘
With temperatures dropping across Europe, with some small sacrifices and energy saving measures, it looks like a major catastrophe has been averted, for the time being. Gas storage was filled over the Spring and Summer. Not to be the bearer of bad news, but what will we do next winter when we don’t have 6 months to fill storage with Gazprom’s finest - Last I checked the LNG infrastructure in Europe doesn’t make up for the shortfall.
If this winter will be challenging, what does that mean for next winter if Putin hasn’t retired by then?
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↗ €380+
· Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↗ €187/197
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA ↗ on week 40 Industrial $520
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↗ on week 40 €575+
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat to higher €91/€95
· Woodchips LT €43.2/MWh ↘ : LV €50.61/MWh 50.61 ↘ : EE €33/MWh ↗
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA flat on week 40 €25/26 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ on week 40 $39/41 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↗ on week 40. $60/63 on 3kt
· Handys/Supras flat on week 40. About $18k on a 4 month time charter.
Overview:
· Azerbaijan has opened a new pipeline into Greece to supply up to 5bcm in the Balkans.
· The IMF predicts growth of only 2.7% from 2023
· Drax has been in the news related to BC, Canadian feedstock procurement. Drax is a responsible actor
· US pellet plant expansion continues in the Southeast - no lack of available feedstock
· Rhine water levels are back to normal sailing conditions
Demand:
· Industrial demand for carbon neutral solutions shows no signs of slowing
· Utilities are sitting fairly balanced with the residential markets facing some stress
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://www.montelnews.com/news/1358363/south-african-coal-exports-at-risk-if-strikes-escalate
· https://www.ft.com/content/30369662-554b-44b7-9f25-b87d5e13548d
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
