Week 42

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 42/2022

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 0.9836 ↗                    $/₽ 64.9479 ↗                              black market rate between roughly 30% higher

EUA Dec 22 €67.77  ↗   API 2 Front month $266.45  ↗

With a mix of positive and negative news the markets are overall higher this week. Gas prices are well off their highs just in time for more strikes in the French nuclear sector, issues around S. African coal exports, and a real lack of ULSD. A lot of purchasing has been done over the past months leading to a slight pause in price increases across the wood markets. Agricultural biomass, on the other hand, is higher: particularly in the olive waste markets.

 Prices:                                                                                                                

·         Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: flat €380+

·         Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat to higher €187/197

·         SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  flat on week 41    Industrial $520                                           

·         Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic flat on week 41  €575+

·         Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170

·         Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat to higher €91/€95

·         Woodchips LT €41.44/MWh ↘ : LV €47.86/MWh 50.61 ↘ : EE €34/MWh ↗

Freight:

·          Baltic Coaster – ARA  ↗  on week 41 €26/28 on 3kt                            

·         Black Sea Coaster  ↗ on week 41 $41/43 on 3kt                                   

·         Azov-Marmara Coaster ↗ on week 41. $65/68 on 3kt                     

·          Handys/Supras  ↘ on week 41.   About $18k on a 4 month time charter.                                                 

Overview:

·         If you can handle olive wastes, even on increasing costs and freight, still the cheapest GJ/kcal/Mwh

·         Liquidity is barely present making long term pricing discussions near impossible on a fixed price basis

·         A mild few weeks of weather are predicted ahead of us

·         Will BECC allow the UK to burn post 2027?

Demand:

·         Industrial demand for carbon neutral solutions shows no signs of slowing

·         Utilities are sitting fairly balanced with the residential markets facing some stress

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.ft.com/content/96611190-3c09-48b7-8ded-7b2651590f94

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1360270/s-african-communities-to-block-coal-trucks-to-export-port

·         hthttps://www.nordpoolgroup.com/en/Market-data1/#/nordic/map

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.