Week 40
AlbionDesign GmbH week 40/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 0.99757 ↗ $/₽ 58.26 flat black market rate between roughly 30% higher
EUA Dec 22 €70.60 ↗ API 2 Front month $294.00 ↘
With the Japanese and EU subsidised power stations and their largest suppliers at a conference in Miami Beach the rest of the market should take a moment to breathe, re-cap what’s going on, and look at the bigger picture.
How does biomass, biogas, or any bio-fuel fit into the company’s portfolio, fulfilling certain criteria: sustainability, security of supply, ESG, GHG, emissions, creditworthiness of supplier – does it make sense within the fuel mix?
What the residential markets will do and how they do it, is a far more immediate question that needs clarification.
Are the larger residential/heating markets ready for a cold winter? Are they secure they’ll realise their supply?
Is there a way to avoid price renegotiations becoming industry standard practice? To gazump or not to gazump?
Overview:
· OPEC+ looking to lower down supply at next meeting while others forecast buoyant demand
· Dollar index around 111. With everywhere else looking shaky the $ seems relatively safe
· At $½ million per day, have we run out of LNG carriers?
· Maybe positive signs coming out from China – keep an eye on the specifics of any new Chinese stimulus measures
· Rhine water levels are back to normal sailing conditions
Demand:
· The question is not demand. It is demand forecasting in stormy seas. Everything is up. Everything is volatile
· With biomass still competitive vs coal, demand is not subsiding.
· Outside of higher quality wood and sunhusk markets there is more and more local straws being consumed
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA flat on week 39 €25/26 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ on week 39 $40/42 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↗ on week 39. $57/60 on 3kt
· Handys/Supras ↗ on week 39. About $18k on a 4 month time charter.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - European Production: ↗ €370+
· Non-sanctioned Russian origin Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↗ €185/195
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ on week 39 Industrial quality & volume $515
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock ↗ on week 39 €565+
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat to higher €89/€93
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://www.montelnews.com/news/1355563/co2-falls-3-ahead-of-vote-to-release-supply
· https://www.freightwaves.com/news/lng-shipping-rates-shooting-for-the-stars-at-500000-per-day
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
