Week 39
AlbionDesign GmbH week 39/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 0.95587 ↘ $/₽ 61.08 flat black market rate between roughly 30% higher
EUA Dec 22 €67.96 ↘ API 2 Front month $327.00 flat
300,000 more men about to reach an early death in Eastern Ukraine is going to drag this senseless slaughter on for longer than it ever should – not that the Ukrainians ever need liberating from fascist Russia in the first place. Gas and coal will continue their rollercoaster ride, wood pellets will continue trending higher along with any other material such as woodchips and agri biomass.
Overview:
· Even though NS 1 & 2 were offline. Blowing up gas lines only adds to current market risks
· Dollar index around 115. The GBP has no support. Fuel costs ($) vs Power sold (£) – one to watch
· Russia sending 300,000 men to Ukraine will only lead to more dead Russians and a war that will drag out
· Look to any Chinese stimulus as a catalyst for coal to move higher
· Ukraine was a great sunflower husk pellet exporter. More biomass will stay in the country for local fuel.
Demand:
· The more gas and coal continue their rollercoaster, biomass comes off looking better
· Even with countries lowering the quality specs on heating pellets, I do not see this covering lost Russian vols
· The uptake of biomass is stalled by a lack of willingness to think and get creative. Wake up! Get storage!
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA flat on week 38 €25/26 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ on week 38 $33/36 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↗ on week 38. $55/58 on 3kt
· Handys/Supras ↗ on week 38. About $18.5k on a 4 month time charter.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - European Production: ↗ €360+
· Non-sanctioned Russian origin Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↗ €180/190
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ on week 38 Industrial quality & volume $500
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock ↗ on week 38 €560+
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat to higher €89/€93
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://www.montelnews.com/news/1354133/gazprom-threatens-to-cut-all-gas-transit-via-ukraine
· https://www.ft.com/content/85f24052-10a6-48de-8eb1-7a6f8be95759
· https://www.rhineforecast.com/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
