Week 38 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 38/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.06365                       ↘:                                      API 2 Front month $125.25    ↗:

EUA DEC 23 €82.76          ↘:                                        EUA DEC 24 €86.91                  ↘:

September has seen an Indian summer in the north and some mixed weather in the south. With the 1st of October around the corner and all eyes on England’s dedicated biomass units, the market finds itself in a tug-of-war as to the future trajectory for prices. Some argue stocks are massive and will take time to burn on fairly warm weather predictions going out till December. Others feel that the coming consumption will absorb volumes and the lower production numbers in the Baltic and Portugal balance out the stored volumes. Time will tell. All eyes on power.       

 Write to admin@albiondesign.co for quotations.

 Prices:  

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: €Call/Write

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med $ Call/Write

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet FOB Baltic € Call/Write

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  $ Call/Write                   

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic € Call/Write

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia  $Call/Write  -US$5 on tenera

·                     Spent olive wastes FCA Spain € Call/Write

·                     Baltpool Woodchips - Lithuania €20.14/MWh ↗: Latvia €22.06/MWh ↘: Estonia €21.39/MWh ↗:

Freight:

·                     Baltic Coaster – ARA  ↗ €Call/Write on 3kt                             

·                     Black Sea Coaster  ↗ $ Call/Write on 3kt                                 

·                     Azov-Marmara  ↗ $ Call/Write on 3kt                    

·                     Handys/Supras  ↗.                                                                          

Overview:

·                     As is usual this time of the year, freight is up on agri exports. Add to that higher bunkers

·                     Market bullish oil, bearish gas, weather mixed….no clear direction apart from dollar strength

Demand:

·                     September has been declared void, all eyes on Q4 and Q1 2024

·                     With UK CfDs looking pretty, will the 3 (please work, MGT) UK power stations awaken the pellet market?

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1523024/mild-weather-until-december-to-lower-eu-gas-demand--experts

·         https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1523284/polish-coal-plant-plan-key-to-utilities-survival--pge

·         https://www.ft.com/content/bb1ac712-2f58-4eb8-bf87-a372ceedd07e

·         https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-rises-for-11th-straight-session-on-strong-vessel-rates/

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.