Week 38

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 38/2022

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 0.99274 ↘                 $/₽ 61.08 ↗      black market rate between roughly 30% higher

EUA Dec 22 €69.95 ↘     API 2 Front month $327.00  ↘     

300,000 more men about to reach an early death in Eastern Ukraine is going to drag this senseless slaughter on for longer than it ever should – not that the Ukrainians ever need liberating from fascist Russia in the first place. Gas and coal will continue their rollercoaster ride, wood pellets will continue trending higher along with any other material such as woodchips and agri biomass.

After attending a cement fuels conference last week (really interesting, by the way) the feeling is, we all need to get creative, really test what our equipment is able to handle and stay flexible.

Overview:

·         Uniper is now in Germany’s hands

·         Dollar index around 110, highest in 20 years.

·         Rhine water levels are not so bad currently but this is not the forecast for the coming weeks.

·         China’s Gas and Coal imports are way down year on year. Let’s hope it doesn’t get cold in Asia this winter

Demand:

·         The balance between requiring any fuel to burn and companies shuttering due to high prices is tricky

·         Demand for biomass outstrips supply. European heavy industry demand has grown on top of growing residential stove markets the same year Russia and Belarus are out of the picture. Competition is tough.

·         Utilities seem to be sitting more comfortably this winter. The same cannot be said for non utility burners.

Freight:

·          Baltic Coaster – ARA  ↘ on week 37 €24/25 on 3kt                             

·         Black Sea Coaster  flat on week 37. $30/32 on 3kt                               

·         Azov-Marmara Coaster flat on week 37. $46/48 on 3kt                   

·          Handys/Supras  ↘  on week 35.                 About $17.5k on a 4 month time charter.                                                              

 Prices:                                                                                                                

·         Sunflower Husk Pellet - European Production: flat  €250+

·         Non-sanctioned Russian origin Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med     €175/185

·         SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA:  ↗ on week 37     Industrial quality & volume  $450                                      

·         Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock  €520

·         Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170

·         Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat to higher €88/€92

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/09/21/who-stands-to-gain-from-closer-relations-between-russia-and-turkey/

·         https://www.agricensus.com/Article/Rhine-water-levels-rise-on-ample-rainfall-but-further-falls-seen-24591.html

·         https://www.ft.com/content/015b5115-e602-4f4d-b1cd-864a95fd37ff

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.