Week 36 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 36/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.07319                       ↘:                                      API 2 Front month $121.23    ↘:

EUA DEC 23 €84.11          ↘:                                        EUA DEC 24 €88.18                  ↘:

September has begun and it is starting off warm.

Prices are creeping up on a stronger dollar and increased coaster and handy rates across the board.

Regulators are finally catching up to the reality that sustainable materials are required. Unfortunately, getting the required audit seems tough as demand for their services outweighs the number of qualified professionals. k    

 admin@albiondesign.co for quotations

 Prices:

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: €xyz

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med €xyz

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  €xyz                  

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic €xyz

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q2 €xyz

·                     Spent olive wastes FCA Spain €xyz

·                     Baltpool Woodchips (week 36) Lithuania €19.04/MWh ↗: Latvia €22.33/MWh ↗: Estonia €20.94/MWh ↗:

Freight:

·                     Baltic Coaster – ARA  ↗ on week 35 €xyz                              

·                     Black Sea Coaster  ↗ on week 35 €xyz                    

·                     Azov-Marmara  ↗ on week 35 €xyz                         

·                     Handys/Supras  higher on week 35.                                                                         

Overview:

·                     With freight only making small gains, the increase in biomass prices is on the FOB side

·                     Expect volatility on freight due to crop exports and energy volatility on Auzzie LNG and mixed China data

Demand:

·                     A round of warm weather hitting Europe this week might cool off spot demand in the short term

·                     Extreme volatility doesn’t play well into CAPEX calculations. On paper, demand should be higher this winter

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.scmp.com/knowledge/china-macro-economy

·         https://en.sat24.com/en/forecastimages/europa/forecasttemp

·         https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/update-lumber-prices-down-14-yoy.html

·         https://www.ft.com/content/ee2bb7c5-6679-45d6-9ca1-4bb260644173

·         https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-slips-as-capesize-losses-outweigh-panamax-gains/

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.