Week 36

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 36/2022

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 0.99 ↘                         $/₽ 61.08 ↗      black market rate between roughly 30% higher

EUA Dec 22 €70.67 ↘     API 2 Front month $380.00  ↗     

Do not forget that most of the power contracts across Europe are in the money. Uniper and EDF were/are in a slightly different place. Had Uniper had gas to burn and EDF had more water to run the Nukes, they would not have needed a bailout/assistance. Europe´s power stations are not going to go bankrupt. The problem is posting collateral, so everyone relax. This can be sorted out.

What I don´t like is the talk of limiting trading. Liquidity is bad, so let´s make it worse?

Overview:

·         Getting a clear picture on production volume is difficult. There is some capacity but without margin/contract

·         Poland rumbling about dropping the CO2 mandate while simultaneously promoting coal. Stone age mentality

·         Biomass prices continue their accent even with CO2 dropping to 6 month lows

Demand:

·         Demand for low carbon solids, liquids, and gases continues to increase across more sectors.

·         Restocking for winter should be starting, in earnest, soon. Eyes on large heating markets: Denmark and Italy

·         Utilities seem to be sitting more comfortably this winter. The same cannot be said for non utility burners.

Freight:

·          Baltic Coaster – ARA  ↘ on week 35 €25/26 on 3kt                             

·         Black Sea Coaster  ↘ on week 35. $30/32 on 3kt                                 

·         Azov-Marmara Coaster  ↘ on week 35. $46/48 on 3kt                    

·          Handys/Supras  ↘  on week 35.                 About $17.5k on a 4 month time charter.                                                              

 Prices:                                                                                                                

·         Sunflower Husk Pellet - European Production: flat  €250+

·         Non-sanctioned Russian origin Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med     €175/185

·         SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA:  ↗ on week 35     Industrial quality & volume  $435                                      

·         Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock  €520

·         Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q4 flat $170

·         Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat to higher €84/€87

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

My sincerest apologies. Inundated with work while travelling. A nice collection of interesting links for you next week.

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.