Week 32 2023
AlbionDesign GmbH week 32/2023
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.09716 ↘: API 2 Front month $120.73 ↗:
EUA DEC 23 €84.65 ↘: EUA DEC 24 €88.63 ↘:
Like it or not, close by or far away, Drax and its 1 (maybe 2) English friends drive sentiment in the Atlantic and Baltic Sea for woody biomass, and therefore everything else considered biomass. With the UK CFD subsidy looking to make sense in Q4, MGT getting its last batch of lucre (so they say), and some huge question marks hanging over the supply side (Russian gas is still Пока-пока!), is the only way up from here?
How does the market balance China entering a deflationary phase, limited options on piped gas, and a winter that could work out colder than the previous? Baltic freight seems largely unchanged, southern coaster markets have reacted to further Russian insanity and are marching higher, sea going geared vessels are not getting the boost that panas and capes are enjoying.
The outlook is still pretty murky, but the sentiment has certainly turned less bearish and to an optimist, a bit bullish.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: : €xyz
· Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med € xyz / xyz
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA : on week 31 $ xyz
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic : on week 31 € xyz +
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q2 $ xyz
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain € xyz /€ xyz
· Baltpool Woodchips Lithuania € xyz/MWh ↗: Latvia € xyz/MWh ↘:Estonia € xyz /MWh ↘:
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA flat on week 31 € xyz / xyz on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ on week 31 $ xyz/ xyz on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara ↗ on week 31 $ xyz /$ xyz on 3kt
· Handys/Supras flat to slightly lower on week 31.
Overview:
· With freight only making small gains, the increase in biomass prices is on the FOB side.
Demand:
· The combined heft of the 2 (maybe 3) English power stations is not to be underestimated.
· Northern Europe is back at the desk planning, the South will be doing the same soon. Winter is coming.
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://climate.copernicus.eu/july-2023-global-air-and-ocean-temperatures-reach-new-record-highs
· www.montelnews.com/news/1514495/gas-rises-on-forecasts-for-hot-spell
· https://www.ft.com/content/03f028d6-3b6d-456c-a57b-b08590f1828f
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
