Week 3 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 03/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.0812                  ↗                                API 2 Front month $170.00    ↘  

EUA Dec 23 €79.56  ↘                               EUA DEC 24 €83.31                    ↘  

Gas is back to pre-war levels, but still elevated compared to historical levels. Wood pellet prices have come off hard since September on full storage, the UK CFDs being kaput, a warm holiday period, and utilities dumping what they can because they don’t have any better ideas, has led to rapid drops. Meanwhile, EU heavy industry proves to be less pestilent, faster, and much to my surprise – far more professional in their approach to their fuel portfolio.  

Who would have thought companies without an entire sustainability department can get the job done faster?

Prices:                                                                                                                

·         Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €190+

·         Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat to higher €170/175

·         SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  ↘ on week 02  Industrial $275                               

·         Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 51 €280+

·         Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q1 ↘ $130

·         Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain  €140/€145  ↗

·         Baltpool Woodchips LT €33.36/MWh ↘: LV €41.40/MWh ↘   : EE €32.04/MWh ↘

Freight:

·          Baltic Coaster – ARA  ↘ on week 02 €26/27 on 3kt                             

·         Black Sea Coaster  ↘ on week 02 $42/44 on 3kt                                   

·         Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘ on week 02 $72/76 on 3kt                       

·          Handys/Supras  ↘ on week 02 .                 About $14k on a 4 month time charter.                                                 

Overview:

·         Even after a massive correction, per GJ biomass is cheaper than lignite

·         The inverted value on the CFD in the UK is the same in Italy

·         Gas storage is brimming – don’t forget demand is down across ferts, power, and heat. This can change.

Demand:

·         The weather is forecast to be chilly in key consumption areas. Could be volatile.

·         Look out for further biogas feedstock imports and one eye on SAF. New hands in the cookie jar.

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1409951/ubs-cuts-ttf-2023-price-forecast-to-eur-80-on-high-storage

·         https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions/

·         https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf

·         https://www.euronews.com/2023/01/11/german-police-start-removing-climate-activists-from-lutzerath

·         https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/16/russian-gas-will-eventually-return-to-europe-as-nations-forgive-and-forget-qatari-energy-minister-says.html

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.