Week 15
AlbionDesign GmbH week 15/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.084 ↘ $/₽ 83.96 ↘ black market rate between 100-115 Rubles to the Dollar
EUA Dec 22 €78.62 ↗ API 2 Front month $314.00 ↗
Peace talks declared a dead-end. Putin’s new narrative is the 2 breakaway republics. This war does not look to end soon. Ørsted has looked into their crystal ball and decided that wood pellets are in short supply (expensive), so have elected to burn coal (also expensive)...which is also in short supply: I’m equally confused. While industrial markets worry about supply, the A1 market is under even greater stress to find Russian/Belarus replacement.
Overview:
· Overall feeling is that Russia is out of the market for a while.
· Coasters fairly flat on the week. From the Avoz, it’s a mystery.
· If you see something that could work, buy it. Tomorrow it’s more expensive and/or already sold.
· Italy to expand Sonatrach volumes. Korea holding off on closing Nuclear. Finally, we’re getting creative.
· ENplus markets push higher into the summer. Some markets require the A1 label. Extremely limited supply
Demand:
· Demand far outweighs supply for wood fuels. Those with flexibility should be blending agri + wood
· Ørsted notwithstanding, demand for green fuels continues, regardless of short term high prices
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster - ARA <-> flat week 14. €39/40 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster <-> flat week 14. $41/42 very much depends on the port of origin and destination
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↗ on week 14 +- $60+ caution: hearing insurance premia pushing way higher.
· Handys/Supras ↘ on week 14. Panas going higher with small drops on the Handys/Supras
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk European Production: ↗ FCA €218+
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €132/tonne
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ higher on week 14 Industrial quality and volume $305
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock ↗ €260+
· PKS FOB Indo/Malay ↗ $135
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/panicky-markets-are-the-greatest-danger-to-global-food-supply/
· https://www.ft.com/content/5c0f16b0-5f27-4d09-854e-f860b2f095ae
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-snaps-13-session-losing-streak-as-panamax-gains/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
