Week 16
AlbionDesign GmbH week 16/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.082 ↘ $/₽ 80.83 ↘ black market rate between 100-115 Rubles to the Dollar
EUA Dec 22 €80.06 ↗ API 2 Front month $321.00 ↗
With Western Easter completed and an Eastern Easter coming up, coupled with Ramadan, a number of people are still out enjoying holidays, so it’s a slightly muted period. Unless something spectacular happens very soon, this war in Ukraine will not end soon. Putin’s new May 9th objective is Eastern Ukraine.
Overview:
· Sunflower volumes from Russia are still finding their way into the EU, albeit slowly.
· Black Sea freight is extreme due to insurance costs. FOB prices should reflect this reality.
· Even with higher costs, low availability & zero forecasting ability, demand for carbon neutral fuels continues.
· Dry weather is not helping hydro production. Overall a dry S. Europe and not a windy N. Europe.
· Talk of a recession in the UK. How and what this will affect is anyone’s guess.
Demand:
· Lignite burners have every reason to burn biomass. Petcoke is a more difficult substitution given its low cost.
· Incremental new growth continues unabated in markets that traditionally didn’t use biomass.
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster - ARA <-> flat week 15. €39/40 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster <-> flat week 15. $41/42 very much depends on the port of origin and destination
· Azov-Marmara Coaster <-> flat week on 15 +- $60+ caution: hearing insurance premia pushing way higher.
· Handys/Supras ↘ on week 15. Atlantic handys are not finding a lot of love
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk European Production: ↗ FCA €225+
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €134/tonne
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ higher on week 15 Industrial quality and volume $308
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock ↗ €265+
· PKS FOB Indo/Malay ↗ $135
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://www.ft.com/content/5c0f16b0-5f27-4d09-854e-f860b2f095ae
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-snaps-13-session-losing-streak-as-panamax-gains/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
