Week 14
AlbionDesign GmbH week 14/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.089 ↘ $/₽ 84.498 ↘
EUA Dec 22 €77.87 ↘ API 2 Front month $301.00 ↗
Coal is one more nail in the coffin on Russia’s economy. Don’t be fooled by the Ruble’s gains – this is not a sign sanctions don’t work – it is due to extreme capital controls – journalists prefer sensationalism, not boring truths.
All eyes are on Germany to see if Schröder and Merkel’s incompetent energy policy can be undone. Lithuania seems to have seen the light long ago.
Overview:
· The countdown is on to get any Russian wood products into an EU port before a total ban
· Russian agricultural wastes and residues still have more life in them depending on destination
· ½ the ships in Avoz/Rostov are Turkish. The Black Sea is open to a degree.
· Difficulties create opportunities and creativity – alternative biomasses are coming in strong
· Production costs on the producer have gone stratospheric. Expect higher FOB costs in the EU
Demand:
· The fascist dwarf’s war has created a dilemma – users banked on Russia, what to do now. Options exist
· N. Europe has higher margin end users paying up for green than the Med. Cost increases are accepted
· With Russian coal going the way of the dodo, price differentials on an NCV basis will be critical
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster - ARA <-> flat week 13. €39/40 on 3kt possible flurry before more sanctions. Likely dropping
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ on week 13. $41/42 very much depends on the port of origin and destination
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↗ on week 13 +- $60+ caution: massive uncertainty. Limited owners calling in
· Handys/Supras ↘ on week 13. Substantial falls in geared vessel freight
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk European Production: ↗ FCA €215+
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €130/tonne
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ higher on week 12 Industrial quality and volume $290-300
· Wood pellet FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock ↗ €250+
· PKS FOB Indo/Malay ↗ $130
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports
· https://splash247.com/61-of-all-orders-in-q1-were-for-alternatively-fuelled-vessels/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
