Week 14 2023
AlbionDesign GmbH week 14/2023
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.0952 ↗ API 2 Front month $142.1 ↗
EUA DEC 23 €96.19 ↗ EUA DEC 24 €100.66 ↗
Energy remains volatile with the overall trend in biomass continuing with little support for pricing.
The Russian picture gets ever murkier (hard to believe, but yes, it is getting even worse), there are no more Western oilseed processors of any scale left in Russia. Paka paka Dreyfus, Cargill, and Glencore Viterra. So, Russia is now completely gone from the biomass sector to buyers with morals.
Coasters are falling across all European basins with Azov falling hardest but remaining elevated.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘: €115+
· Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↘: €140/150
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA flat on week 13 $195
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic flat on week 13 €195+
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q2 flat $130
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain ↘: €130/€135
· Baltpool Woodchips LT €22.80/MWh ↗: LV €25.84/MWh ↘ : EE €18.49/MWh ↘
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA ↘: on week 13 €21.0/22.0 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↘: on week 13 $29/31 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘: on week 13 $56/58 on 3kt
· Handys/Supras ↘: on week 13.
Overview:
· Are we reaching a bottom on pricing? Not sure. Perhaps we’re close.
· Maintenance, CAPEX projects in the pipeline. Demand will come
· I was wrong on geared vessels. A little pop a few weeks ago and now we’re back to falling freight
Demand:
· There is no demand.
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://www.euractiv.com/section/biomass/news/eu-biomass-guiana-exception-raises-eyebrows/
· https://biomassmagazine.com/articles/19891/uk-delays-action-on-large-scale-beccs-projects
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
