Week 15 2023
AlbionDesign GmbH week 15/2023
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.1070 ↗ API 2 Front month $123.50 ↘
EUA DEC 23 €94.39 ↘ EUA DEC 24 €98.97 ↘
More of the same in week 15. Any number of excuses can be made but the truth is there is very little demand. The issue isn’t price, and supply is irrelevant if there is no demand. The demand there is for wood pellets is more easily met from power stations shifting supplies than from new production. Most of the market that is intrinsically short: end users and distributors are all long product. This isn’t a contango carry, this is carrying more expensive stocks into the summer.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘: €112+
· Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↘: €137/143
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA flat on week 14 $195
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic flat on week 14 €195+
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q2 flat $130
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain ↘: €124/€130
· Baltpool Woodchips LT €21.71/MWh ↘: LV €25.40MWh ↘ : EE €19.20/MWh ↗
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA flat: on week 14 €21.0/22.0 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↘: on week 14 $28/29 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘: on week 14 $54/56 on 3kt
· Handys/Supras flat: on week 14 .
Overview:
· Distributors pray for higher prices or some demand to offload volume
· Japan looks to become a far more interesting market
· I was wrong on geared vessels. A little pop a few weeks ago and now we’re back to falling freight
Demand:
· There is no demand.
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/atlantic-supramax-market-looks-to-higher-rates-in-q2/
· https://www.ft.com/content/5b337285-9b67-4b61-81ce-36d2d968c82c
· https://www.montelnews.com/news/1482583/chinese-coal-imports-hit-multi-year-high-in-march
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
