Week 12 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 12/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.0920                          ↗                               API 2 Front month $127.93       ↘

EUA DEC 23 €90.05          ↗                                EUA DEC 24 €93.83                      ↗

Some gloomy news over the past week. CS will be absorbed by UBS in some fashion. China went to visit their petrol station (Russia) recently and a German energy regulator says this winter will be hard – German politicians are know for their pessimism. US banks that focused on eTulips are ironically asked the Fed for help (I thought crypto was all about banks being bad??). Freight has hit the pause button, coaster and geared. Feels like something is brewing.

 Prices:

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: flat €120+

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med flat €158/160

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  flat on week 11 $195                  

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic flat on week 11 €195+

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q1 flat $130

·                     Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat  €140/€145 

·                     Baltpool Woodchips LT €22.18/MWh ↘: LV €31.14/MWh ↘ : EE €19.45/MWh ↘

Freight:

·                      Baltic Coaster – ARA  flat on week 11 €22.0/23.0 on 3kt                   

·                     Black Sea Coaster  flat on week 11 $30/32 on 3kt                                

·                     Azov-Marmara Coaster  flat on week 11 $64/67 on 3kt                   

·                      Handys/Supras  flat to marginally higher on week 11.                                                                     

Overview:

·                     Q2 feels like spot will be weak with Q3/4 discussions higher.

·                     Seeing a lot of biomass demand from September/October and hearing crickets for earlier dates

·                     Material must be sold. Material must be burnt…eventually. The stalemate will end in the coming weeks.

Demand:

·                     Some traders and distributors are sniffing around for the coming winter months. Volumes discussed are quite small and bid-offer spreads remain stubbornly high.

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·                     https://www.montelnews.com/news/1466899/europes-reliance-on-spot-lng-to-rise-until-2025--analysts

·                     www.ft.com/content/0c305687-45eb-411c-b855-706ff56cec3a

·                     https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-logs-worst-day-in-five-weeks-on-tepid-demand-for-larger-vessels/

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.