Week 11 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 11/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.06592                       ↗                                         API 2 Front month $130.68      ↗

EUA DEC 23 €89.42          ↘                                       EUA DEC 24 €93.54                      ↘

Headlines this week have been dominated by bank failures/rescues and everything in between – the lesson is simple: boring banks are good. Cool banks are not. Interest rates going up, uncertainty about recession, demand, China, war… there is a lot to take in. Add full stocks and falling prices and it’s a recipe for liquidity to vanish further.

 Prices:

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €120+

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↘ €158/160

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  ↘ on week 10 $195                    

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 10 €195+

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q1 flat $130

·                     Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat  €140/€145 

·                     Baltpool Woodchips LT €23.58/MWh ↘: LV €32.60/MWh ↘ : EE €19.45/MWh ↘

Freight:

·                      Baltic Coaster – ARA  ↘: on week 10 €22.0/23.0 on 3kt                    

·                     Black Sea Coaster  flat on week 10 $30/32 on 3kt                                

·                     Azov-Marmara Coaster  ↘: on week 10 $64/67 on 3kt                    

·                      Handys/Supras  flat to marginally higher on week 10.     About $9.0k on a 4 month time charter.                                                                

Overview:

·                     Apart from spot volumes where there was unexpected cold a bit of cold, demand is not there

·                     It feels as though larger cargoes are floating homeless and what demand is there, comes from small coasters

·                     The energy complex is looking shaky on a lack of demand across diesel, gas and solid fuels

Demand:

·                     With the current volatility buyers are split wondering if prices continue to fall or if this is the right time to sign a term contract. Volatility, interest rate hikes, and a cloudy near term are where we find ourselves

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·                     https://www.montelnews.com/news/1461387/european-gas-storage-seen-at-50-55-by-april--italy-tso

·                     https://www.ft.com/content/e34e00d2-e6f5-408d-90c8-bb6f7e06741f

·                     https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-snaps-19-session-winning-streak-as-larger-vessels-weigh/

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.