Week 10 2023
AlbionDesign GmbH week 10/2023
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.05993 ↘ API 2 Front month $123.82 ↘
EUA Dec 23 €99.30 ↗ EUA DEC 24 €104.33 ↗
Difficult situation for everyone. Traders and distributors with excess stored volumes and no buyers while prices fall. Producers producing without a profit margin in sight. Continued weak demand from the UK power sector. An overly warm winter. 2023 is going to be a tough year for many and getting through all the stored pellets when demand does pick up will take time. On the bright side, implied demand continues its upward trajectory.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €125+
· Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↘ €160/165
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA ↘ on week 09 $200
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 09 €200+
· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q1 flat $130
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat €140/€145
· Baltpool Woodchips LT €24.47/MWh ↗ : LV €33.65/MWh ↘ : EE €21.13/MWh ↘
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA ↘: on week 09 €22.5/24 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↘: on week 09 $30/32 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘: on week 09 $66/69 on 3kt
· Handys/Supras flat to marginally higher on week 09. About $9.0k on a 4 month time charter.
Overview:
· Demand in traditional power and heating markets remains weak
· Those that use containers will be happy that rates are back to pre covid levels
· April looks like it will be a continuation of more weak demand and falling prices unless something major happens
Demand:
· Currently, the demand seen is a bit on the cheap side. Time will tell if they’re correct
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://www.montelnews.com/news/1454620/german-chemical-industry-still-concerned-about-energy-prices
https://www.ft.com/content/d730b863-9c45-41ac-b495-665140ec68ad
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
