Week 08
AlbionDesign GmbH week 08/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.132 ↘ $/₽ 78.83 ↗
EUA Dec 22 €90.56 ↗ API 2 Front month $170.00 ↗
I’m not too proud to say I was wrong. There you have it. South-eastern Ukraine surprised me.
The extent to which Russia’s involvement in 2 Ukrainian (former?) provinces will affect the agro/forestry/energy complex is not easy to guess. NS2 is paused, sanctions talks abound, and heavily weighted Russian commodities like wheat, corn, and metals, today, are flat to down in global markets.
Freight is not coming to the recuse for most of you. Bad news newsletter this week. Geared deep sea vessels continue their crawl higher and the Baltic coasters are remaining stubbornly high. So, congratulations to those of you in the sunny Mediterranean and Black Sea! At least your freight rates continue heading south.
Overview:
· Where wood pellet exporters operate, delays are still present. Baltics, Portugal, N. America.
· 2 tiered market continues with local material often significantly above ex-EU imports.
Demand:
· CO2 is really expensive! At €40 coal stations said too much effort. Now they’re making the effort.
· To what extend power generators burn all out in the summer is debateable. Other industrials increasing
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster - ARA ↗ flat to slightly higher on week 07. €37.5/38.5 on 3kt €0.5 up on previous
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ week 07. N. Black Sea to Marmara is near $27 on 3kt $1 down on previous
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘ on week 07 +- $33 Azov Marmara/E. Med $1 down on previous
· Handys/Supras ↗ this vessel size is getting a lot of attention. Slow moves higher
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic Sea: ↗ FOB €128 SPOT
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: CIF $161 SPOT
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €109/tonne I cannot find reliable prices attached to real volume
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ higher on week 07 massive spreads. Could be close to $280 on real volume
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Black Sea – Greece/Italy expect larger savings for every additional 1kt
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports
· https://ukragroconsult.com/en/conference/black-sea-grain-2022/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
