Week 09
AlbionDesign GmbH week 09/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.109 ↘ $/₽ 111.8 ↗
EUA Dec 22 €67.60 ↘ API 2 Front month $270.00 ↗
In less than 1 week the world has changed. Russia, once seen as an enigma is now simply a pariah. Italy restarting coal stations, Orsted’s public statement on Russia volumes, funds dumping CO2 to shift into defence stocks, and a humanitarian disaster unfolding on our doorstep. The case for diversification and buffer stocks has never been greater. Support your friends, colleagues, suppliers, and logistics providers in Ukraine.
Overview:
· Except for extreme circumstances Russian ports are closed. Azov is closed. Ukrainian ports are under attack
· Argus Biomass London 2022 has a huge Russian focus. Everyone had high hopes for Russia. Everyone!
· Reports of Russian producers unable to book rail capacity. Payment issues, war requisitioning? Not clear
Demand:
· Just secure fuel! Coal, petcoke, whatever it may be. Nothing is leaving Russia any time soon.
· The case for storage is looking strong.
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster - ARA ↗ flat to slightly higher on week 08. €40 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ week 08. N. Black Sea to Marmara Shipowners looking for employment. East closed
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘ on week 07 +- $33 Azov Marmara/E. Med $1 down on previous
· Handys/Supras ↗ this vessel size is getting a lot of attention. Slow moves higher
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic Sea: ↗ FOB €128 This is Russian volume. Unsure if it has become toxic
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: CIF $161 SPOT
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €109/tonne I cannot find reliable prices attached to real volume
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ higher on week 08 massive spreads. Could be close to $300 on real volume
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Black Sea – Greece/Italy expect larger savings for every additional 1kt
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports
· https://www.ft.com/content/0f0030d6-b8bd-4122-921d-1369be6a5027
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/shipping-giant-maersk-steers-clear-of-russia-as-western-net-tightens/
· https://orsted.dk/presse/nyheder/2022/02/13644341
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
