Week 07
AlbionDesign GmbH week 07/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.138 ↘ $/₽ 75.01 ↗
EUA Dec 22 €88.72 ↘ API 2 Front month $148.00 ↗
Another week of the news pumping out fear of immanent invasion and another week the FX barely moves, grains continue flowing from the Black Sea and life carries on.
A closely read and re-reported article from a Goldman Sachs commodities analyst is going around with a better explanation of high commodity prices – shortages. I tend to agree here. Basically, everything is in short supply and the situation will not be remedied soon.
Overview:
· Futures markets are pointing at expensive energy for the foreseeable future.
· Feedstock isn’t getting easier to find in the Baltics. Furniture demand is adding to the lack of availability
Demand:
· Elevated summer power markets, gas, and CO2 keeps strong summer burn options open to utilities.
· N.B. energy is a global market. In non-EU countries, fossil replacement is also taking place.
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster - ARA ↗ flat to slightly higher on week 05. €38/39 on 3kt €3 up on previous
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ week 06. N. Black Sea to Marmara is near $28 on 3kt $3 down on previous
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘ on week 6 +- $34 Azov Marmara/E. Med $1 down on previous
· Handys/Supras ↗ big moves to the upside. Larger vessels are not faring as well
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic Sea: ↗ FOB €127+- SPOT
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ FOB €127 SPOT
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €107/tonne I cannot find reliable prices attached to real volume
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ higher on week 06 Q1 $252 Q2 $240
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports
· https://ukragroconsult.com/en/conference/black-sea-grain-2022/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
