Week 8 2023

22 Feb

AlbionDesign GmbH week 08/2023

Economically Ecological

€/$ 1.06565 ↘ API 2 Front month $136.00 ↗

EUA Dec 23 €100.12 ↗ EUA DEC 24 €104.77 ↗

€100 on the Dec EUA. To anyone that bought coal or petcoke a few months ago on a 6 month strip without hedging the CO2, my my, I feel for you. The CO2 is making those fossil calories look like an expensive, dirty, mistake. It’s Karma, you had the green option, now you’re burning the green (cash money!).

The question on people’s minds, currently – as energy costs come down have we avoided a recession in Europe? – UK excluded – there’s no saving Brexit Britain at this point. It seems that way - purchasing managers’ confidence is back up and consumers feel better with lower energy costs. As for Chinese demand – the verdict is still out.

Prices:

· Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘ €155+

· Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↘ €165/170

· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA ↘ on week 07 Industrial $215

· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 07 €212+

· Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q1 flat $130

· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat €140/€145

· Baltpool Woodchips LT €26.00/MWh ↘: LV €34.70/MWh ↘: EE €23.80/MWh ↘

Freight:

· Baltic Coaster – ARA ↘: on week 07 €23/25 on 3kt

· Black Sea Coaster ↘: on week 07 $33/35 on 3kt

· Azov-Marmara Coaster flat on week 07 $70/73 on 3kt

· Handys/Supras flat on week 07. About $9.0k on a 4 month time charter.

Overview:

· There was a slight delay on wood chip pricing, but now it’s also dropping like a stone

· Coasters everywhere are down. Owners looking for cargoes that don’t exist

· Handy’s and Supra’s ticked higher. Still low but Greeks are saying it’s the bottom - watch the Greeks

· RED II so far is a farce. Many countries have still not transcribed the text (always Poland) and many regulators don’t seem to understand their job. Said it for 1 year, your regulator must be your new BFF!

Demand:

· EUA up, demand up.

· Packaging, clothing, SAF, bio-coke, biochar, there is a lot of interesting things going on

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading: