Week 05
AlbionDesign GmbH week 05/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.128 ↘ $/₽ 76.53 ↘
EUA Dec 22 €90.75 ↗ API 2 Front month $155.00 ↗
While the trend for energy products and CO2 compliance is moving higher, the intra-day/week volatility is extreme. The % gains or falls across the entire energy complex, freight markets, and FX do not make short term planning any easier.
Overview:
· Power market curves are remaining strong throughout Q1 +Q2 across Europe.
· Coal stocks are at multi year lows and remains cheaper vs gas, pushing up the cost of CO2 compliance
· Fairly steady demand and higher bunkers are keeping the Baltic coaster from dropping vs Azov and Black Sea
Demand:
· Elevated summer power markets, gas, and CO2 keeps strong summer burn options open to utilities.
· N.B. energy is a global market. In non-EU countries, fossil replacement is also taking place.
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster - ARA ↗ flat to slightly lower on week 04. €34/35 on 3kt Baltic
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ week 04. N. Black Sea to Marmara is near $33 on 3kt $0.50 down on previous
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↗ on week 04. +- $39.5 Azov Marmara/E. Med $0.50 up on previous
· Handys/Supras ↘ - Both Pacific and Atlantic Basins continue to fall.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: ↗ Spot 60 days FOB €126+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ FOB €126
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €100/tonne I cannot find reliable prices attached to real volume
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ $1 higher on week 05 Q1 $240 Q2 $225
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-extends-fall-on-waning-demand-for-vessels/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
