Week 04

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 04/2022

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.1291 ↘                    $/₽ 79.01  ↗

EUA Dec 22 €86.79 ↘     API 2 Front month $147.50  ↗

Gas, Power, Coal, Biomass, EUA...It’s all up today. While there is nothing exciting happening on the Ukraine/Russia border, traders are taking any news as a reason to push the market higher. NWE coal stocks are at 10 months lows, making limited gas volumes look slightly worrying. The East Med got a blast of snow making the warmer areas of Europe colder while the North is not particularly cold for January. Colder weather is forecast in the short term.

Overview:

·         Overall energy, and most commodities, look expensive but never forget margins. As long as margins are positive these high prices are still “affordable” when looking at fossil alternatives.  

·          Even with freight coming off, greater increases in FOB rates have off set any savings on lower freight.  

Demand:

·         Two fold increase. New entrants to the market and increased utilisation for those with previous experience

·         Demand is likely larger than we expect. Aviation Fuel, bio-coke for steel, etc there is a lot of work going on

Freight:

·         Baltic Coaster <-> flat to slightly lower on week  03. €33-35 on 3kt Baltic

·         Black Sea Coaster ↘ week 03. N. Black Sea to Marmara is near $34 on 3kt          $1 less on previous

·         Azov-Marmara Coaster  ↘ on week 03. +- $39 Azov Marmara/E. Med                  $1 less on previous

·         Handys/Supras  ↘- lowest since Feb 2021, on lower demand for ships

 Prices:

·         Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic:  ↗ Spot 60 days FOB €126+-

·         Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ FOB €126

·         Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €100/tonne              I cannot find reliable prices attached to real volume

·         Wood pellet CIF ARA:  ↗  $5 higher on week 05  Q1 $240       Q2 $225

·          

 Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.  

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf

·         https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions                                 *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports

·         https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-extends-fall-on-waning-demand-for-vessels/

·         https://www.tradewindsnews.com/bulkers/eastern-pacific-bans-coal-from-its-commercially-managed-bulkers/2-1-1151167

·         http://www.biomassmagazine.com/articles/18529/drax-announces-plans-to-double-pellet-production-capacity-by-2030

·         https://www.cemfuels.com/

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.