Week 02
AlbionDesign GmbH week 02/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.1284 ↗ $/₽ 74.54 ↘
EUA Dec 22 €83.50 ↘ API 2 Front month $114.07 ↘
½ way through week 2 and things are still fairly quiet with a number of people still out until Monday. Real excitement is muted by a question mark hanging over our heads: what exactly does one need for RED II. Gas has come off highs thanks to a number of US LNG cargoes, but the long term picture for the EU is no different. Likewise, Ukraine has taken around 650kt of US coal to help fend off a Winter crisis but structural problems are there.
Overview:
· RED II is with us. Now begins the task of sitting down with suppliers, auditors and the National Regulator.
· Biomass demand into non-mandated parties had a taster in 2021. 2022 biomass is now part of the EU energy market. Cement, Lime, Petrochemical producers, etc. If they burned coal, they now add biomass.
Demand:
· The skepticism and reluctance for coal replacement has faded. New entrants and higher burn rates in 2022
· Securing baseload volumes is the current focus for larger companies and narrowing the choice of fuel
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster ↘ on week 01. €36-€35 on 3kt Baltic
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ week 01. N. Black Sea to Marmara is near $37 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘ on week 1. +- $48 Azov Marmara/E. Med
· Handys/Supras ↘- down slightly with owners trying to keep rates buoyant
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: <-> Spot 60 days FOB €125+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ FOB €125
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. I cannot find reliable prices attached to real volume
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ flat to slightly higher on week 01 Q1 $230 Q2 $215
·
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/
· www.splash247.com
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
