Week 42
AlbionDesign week 42/2021
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.1642 ↗ $/₽ 70.97 ↘
EUA Dec 21 €55.65 ↘ API 2 Front month $237 ↘
To Nord Stream 2 or not to Nord Stream 2, that is the question. There is a lot of noise in the market and direction is not clear. With energy stocks low across the board – coal & gas, and demand staying strong one should not expect Q4 weakness going into the heating season.
Overview:
· India requiring 5-10% biomass in its coal fleet? Don’t expect this to affect prices in Europe any time soon.
· Handy freight is larger flat, with coasters pushing higher in the Baltic and moving sideways in the Black Sea.
· Ukraine’s sunflower harvest revised down 100kt to 16.6 million tonnes.
Demand:
· Non-utility demand is currently limited due to technical testing, not due to pricing.
· Poland has the ability to ramp up its consumption of biomass. Where these volumes will come from is uncertain – Ukraine, a typical exporter to Poland may curtail exports to keep fuel locally.
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster ↗– up on week 41. Shippers are paying up to €32.5 on 3kt Baltic ARA.
· Black Sea Coaster – Flat on week 41. Market expects more Turkish Scrap buying in Dec. One to watch.
· Azov <–> Marmara Coaster ↗ – up $1 to high $30s/low $40s on 4/5kt
· Supramax SE Asia <–> NWE $73/tonne. Route 1B is staying strong on the front haul out of the Black Sea.
Larger vessels are coming off highs while the BSI (Supramax index) is pushing slightly higher.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: Spot 60 days FOB €110+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ Spot 60 days CIF 3kt coaster Constanza/Varna/Burgas 3kt $144
· Wood pellet I2 quality East Med: ↗ Spot 60 days FOB $135
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://www.agricensus.com/vegoil-news/
· https://bioenergyeurope.org/events/11-events/260-energy-intensive-industry-using-biomass-to-reach-carbon-neutrality-by-2050.html Bioenergy Europe event on biomass in Energy Intensive Industry Oct 26
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
