Week 43
AlbionDesign week 43/2021
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.1607 ↘ $/₽ 69.51 ↘
EUA Dec 21 €59.40 ↗ API 2 Front month $193 ↘
Energy is political – now even more so. Coal = Chinese policy, Methane = Gazprom. What happens when these two fuels with some interoperability are being pulled in opposing directions? It seems decreasing investment in CAPEX projects given companies and investors are struggling for clarity. Outcome – not positive.
Overview:
· After a few weeks of unending energy price increases – this week almost feels calm, unless you’re Moldovan
· Are Chinese political threats the new driver in energy pricing? Coal drops because the CCP says so.
· European coaster owners are celebrating an early Christmas with strong increases on all short sea routes
Demand:
· With usual utility maintenance before the heating season is all but complete, expect more demand in NWE.
· Wood pellet price increases leads to the inevitable search for alternatives. Increasing interest on SFHP.
· Heavy Industry is currently confused, and rightly so. The desire for carbon neutral fuels is huge. The lack of knowledge surrounding product and availability is hampering their ability to make clear choices. Pull the trigger and get the industrial tests done.
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster ↗– up on week 41. Shippers are paying up to €34 on 3kt Baltic ARA.
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ –US$38 – 40. Spreads are wide depending on the Russian loadport
· Azov <–> Marmara Coaster ↗ – up $1 on last week.
· Supramax and Handys have come off recently. Nothing like the precipitous drop on capes. Backhauls will be looking increasing attractive to owners.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: Spot 60 days FOB €114+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ Spot 60 days CIF 3kt coaster Constanza/Varna/Burgas 3kt $149
· Wood pellet I2 quality East Med: ↗ Spot 60 days FOB $140
· Wood pellet CIF ARA Q1 - $200
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://www.agricensus.com/vegoil-news/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
