Week 41
AlbionDesign week 41/2021
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.1549 $/₽ 71.87
EUA Dec 21 €60.01 API 2 Front month $243
TTF Gas, German Power, API2 Coal, EUA all down but it doesn’t feel like the market is overly optimistic. Supply is limited, freight is expensive, demand is not letting up. If you have access to product, buy it.
Overview:
· All eyes on GazProm. Whether in the Baltic or the Balkans, spot volatility is high and further supply is a guessing game. Countries accessing gas through Ukraine are not best served currently – Moldova, Romania.
· Russian Wheat and Barley exports are down on a 27% smaller crop, potentially easing the coaster demand.
· EU processed sunflower husks are few and far between. Most volumes have been contracted for Q4. Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia have volumes.
Demand:
· Demand is there. Wind speeds are increasing but stocks of fuels are low. Balkan demand is very high on uncertainty of gas supplies and high coal costs. Russian supply is currently business as usual.
· Increasing inquiries and trialing from heavy industry continues.
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – up on week 40. With bunkers rising, owners have an excuse to stay firm
3kt €30/tonne
· Black Sea Coaster – Flat on week 40. Market feeling that we have reached the peak.
· Azov <–> Marmara Coaster – Flat on week 40 with the Kersh reopening, even with rising bunkers
3kt $37/tonne
· Supramax SE Asia <–> NWE $74/tonne
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: Spot 60 days FOB €110+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: Spot 60 days CIF 3kt coaster Constanza/Varna/Burgas 3kt $142
· Wood pellet I2 quality East Med: Spot 60 days FOB $125
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://www.agricensus.com/vegoil-news/
· https://www.theice.com/products/197/EUA-Futures/data?marketId=5115279&span=2
· https://bioenergyeurope.org/events/11-events/260-energy-intensive-industry-using-biomass-to-reach-carbon-neutrality-by-2050.html Bioenergy Europe event on biomass in Energy Intensive Industry Oct 26
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
