Week 45
AlbionDesign week 45/2021
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.1563 ↘ $/₽ 70.62 ↘
EUA Dec 21 €60.45 ↗ API 2 Front month $127.03 ↘
German power and global oil demand is back at 2019 levels with ever increasing demand. Fast fashion is racing ahead – what have we learned? Despite this rather sad news, European heavy industry has not been waiting around – coal is slowly, but surely being kicked out of heavy industry leaving the utilities in Poland and Germany looking like the lame ducks of Europe.
Overview:
· Shipping spreads widen with the handy & supras continuing their falls with coasters shooting ever higher
· COP26 promises do little in Europe. Commercially, there will be no coal far before the promised dates.
· Consumption is fantastic across Europe on alternative fuels. Those who tested months ago are benefitting
Demand:
· Increasing in every corner of Europe. Industries I didn’t know existed are swapping out their coal.
Freight:
· Deep sea is down but coasters are still on a roll, in both the North & South of Europe
· Baltic Coaster ↗– up €1 on week 44. Shippers are paying up to €35/6 on 3kt Baltic ARA.
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ –US$42 on 4/5kt. Spreads are wide depending on the Russian loadport
· Azov <–> Marmara Coaster ↗ – up $1 on last week.
· Supramax and Handys are down. The Atlantic basin is holding up stronger than the Pacific Basin currently
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: Spot 60 days FOB €121+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ Spot 60 days CIF 3kt coaster Constanza/Varna/Burgas 3kt $158
· Wood pellet I2 quality East Med: ↗ Spot 60 days FOB $147
· Wood pellet CIF ARA Q1 - $203+
·
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://www.agricensus.com/vegoil-news/
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
