Week 48
AlbionDesign week 48/2021
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.135 ↗ $/₽ 73.9 ↘
EUA Dec 21 €75.3 ↗ API 2 Front month $106.00 ↘
Winter is coming! In the N. Baltic ice is starting to form, Scotland got blanketed with snow, yet gas & coal are down. The bad news, power has gone up like Germany inflation numbers (but remember inflation doesn’t exist 😉). While many producers can pass on costs to their clients, the limits to what the consumer can pay is starting to come into question. Some large power users are slowing production or shuttering. Meanwhile CO2 and biomass tick higher.
Overview:
· Inflation numbers across Europe are staggering while a new variant of COVID threatens Christmas demand
· The driver for coal substation is driven by EUA prices and consumer demand. Coal is now a side story.
· It feels like being “green” has moved from marketing to business as usual/necessary. This time it’s real.
Demand:
· For many industries energy is the number 1 cost. Finding solutions to exploding power and fuel is agenda #1
· Remember, power is a small % of energy demand. On top of previous demand, now comes heating demand.
Freight:
· Deep sea is down but coasters are still on a roll, in both the North & South of Europe
· Baltic Coaster <-> on week 47. Very little increase in prices while availability is still close to zero
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ €1.00 on week 47. Russian export tax increases have not affected demand.
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↗ – way up. Impressive freight gains.
· Geared deep-sea vessels look cheap if you can handle the volume. Flat to slightly up on previous week
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: <-> Spot 60 days FOB €122+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ FOB €120
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €90
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ Q1 + Q2 - $215+
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://www.ft.com/content/e2b6a4d2-5c3c-4fea-b7b2-8b261697e74b
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/
· www.splash247.com
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
