Week 46
AlbionDesign week 46/2021
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.13 ↘ $/₽ 72.76 ↗
EUA Dec 21 €67.68 ↗ API 2 Front month $125.03 <->
Gas, or the lack thereof, is back in the driver’s seat with everything up: Germany power, Dutch gas, Brent, Nordic power, and no surprise – biomass. With the EUA at the highest ever, it is no surprise that biomass is going through the roof, but still a cheap GJ when considered carbon neutral.
Overview:
· Poland claims to require a REDII scheme. They haven’t realized that 99% of wood doesn’t yet comply. Overall effect – nothing. They will just burn local coal as usual. Shame as Poland has so much potential.
· Get ready to pay up. What was once €100 CIF is now €100+ ex works.
Demand:
· Insatiable. The late comers to the carbon neutral party are finding fewer and more expensive offers
· Will we see Asian volumes reaching European shores? Depending on ship size the arb is open
· Expect spot demand as producers claim price majeure and export volumes suddenly stay local.
Freight:
· Deep sea is down but coasters are still on a roll, in both the North & South of Europe
· Baltic Coaster ↗– up €0.5 on week 45. Available tonnage is still the issue up north
· Black Sea Coaster <–> no real moves in the Black Sea. Freight is still high but increases slowing
· Azov - Marmara Coaster <–> – barely up on last week
· Deepsea freight is looking ever more attractive. Supras & Handies on a SE Asian backhaul aren’t bad
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: Spot 60 days FOB €121+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ Spot 60 days CIF 3kt coaster Constanza/Varna/Burgas 3kt $170
· Wood pellet I2 quality East Med: ↗ Spot 60 days FOB $155
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ Q1 + Q2 - $205+
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://www.danskenergi.dk/sites/danskenergi.dk/files/media/dokumenter/2017-09/BiomassForEnergy.pdf
· https://www.ft.com/content/a06df5b2-58ff-46f2-920d-a5ebaca68b11
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/
· www.splash247.com
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
