Week 44
AlbionDesign week 44/2021
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.158 ↘ $/₽ 71.51 ↗
EUA Dec 21 €59.14 ↘ API 2 Front month $139 ↘
With rain across most of Europe dampening our spirits, it has yet to dampen prices of alternative fuels. Coal and methane are off their highs but questions remain over stocks going into the Winter. For the highest standard of sustainably certified industrial wood pellet, the price has gone over $200/tonne CIF NWE for the first time in years.
Overview:
· Incredible moves across the complex: from coal, petcoke, gas, and the Supra + Handy indices taking big hits
· Gazprom tells us we’re ok, but neglects to book pipeline capacity to Poland + Ukr for Q1 – Q3 2022
· Any hope of a bumper sunflower crop lowering pellet prices be warned: demand is increasing.
· European coaster owners are celebrating an early Christmas with strong increases on all short sea routes
Demand:
· Demand for heat & energy always increases in the Winter. Supply storages, logistics issues, and a lot of unanswered questions leads to “just-in-case” purchasing. Better be safe and have something to burn
· New entrants and some old names are starting to mix 100% biomass into their fuel portfolios. Percentages vary depending on their overall fuel mix, but results have been better than expected - bio portion to rise
Freight:
· Deep sea is down but coasters are still on a roll, in both the North & South of Europe
· Baltic Coaster ↗– up €1 on week 43. Shippers are paying up to €34/5 on 3kt Baltic ARA.
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ –US$40 on 4/5kt. Spreads are wide depending on the Russian loadport
· Azov <–> Marmara Coaster ↗ – up $1 on last week.
· Supramax and Handys are down 13% and 4% respectively.
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic: Spot 60 days FOB €118+-
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: ↗ Spot 60 days CIF 3kt coaster Constanza/Varna/Burgas 3kt $155
· Wood pellet I2 quality East Med: ↗ Spot 60 days FOB $145
· Wood pellet CIF ARA Q1 - $200+
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
This is a short video showing physical characteristics of a sunflower husk pellet
· AlbionDesign on LinkedIn: Sunflower Husk Pellets
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://www.agricensus.com/vegoil-news/
· https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
